{
  "_meta": {
    "schema_version": "1.5",
    "generated": "2026-05-02",
    "description": "Apocalypse Clock parameter dataset with explicit growth-calibration metadata. Each '<threat>.growth_rate' entry distinguishes raw indicator growth from effective systemic risk-growth.",
    "parameter_count_excluding_meta": 184,
    "threat_count": 23,
    "metrics_per_threat": 8,
    "threats": [
      "ai",
      "amr",
      "authoritarian",
      "autonomousw",
      "biodiversity",
      "bioengineered",
      "climate",
      "cyber",
      "debt",
      "displacement",
      "economic",
      "epistemic",
      "fragmentation_gov",
      "geopolitics",
      "minerals",
      "nuclear",
      "oceans",
      "pandemics",
      "pollution",
      "soils",
      "space",
      "supply",
      "water"
    ],
    "metrics": [
      "scale",
      "urgency",
      "acceleration",
      "interdependence",
      "irreversibility",
      "gov_failure",
      "growth_rate",
      "threshold"
    ],
    "entry_fields": [
      "mu",
      "lo",
      "hi",
      "source",
      "url",
      "accessed",
      "strength",
      "note",
      "growth_kind",
      "risk_conversion",
      "raw_indicator_growth",
      "effective_growth_calibrated",
      "calibration_note"
    ],
    "dimensions": {
      "scale": {
        "range": "0-5",
        "meaning": "estimated potential systemic magnitude of harm if the threat intensifies."
      },
      "urgency": {
        "range": "0-5",
        "meaning": "near-term priority; how much the threat already requires action in the present decade."
      },
      "acceleration": {
        "range": "0-5",
        "meaning": "observed or plausibly inferred rate of worsening in drivers, exposure, capability, or impacts."
      },
      "interdependence": {
        "range": "0-5",
        "meaning": "degree to which the threat couples to, amplifies, or is amplified by other systemic threats."
      },
      "irreversibility": {
        "range": "0-5",
        "meaning": "persistence of damage and difficulty of recovery once the threat crosses damaging states."
      },
      "gov_failure": {
        "range": "0-5",
        "meaning": "risk that governance, institutions, or collective action fail to prevent or contain the threat."
      },
      "growth_rate": {
        "range": "dimension-specific, not 0-5",
        "unit": "annualized effective systemic risk-growth proxy",
        "meaning": "annualized fractional growth proxy where 0.02 means about 2% per year. This must be a calibrated effective systemic risk-growth value, not raw indicator growth."
      },
      "threshold": {
        "range": "0-10",
        "unit": "normalized destabilization threshold",
        "meaning": "abstract model threshold for systemic destabilization. It is not a 0-5 severity score. It should be calibrated against dashboard anchors such as climate, nuclear conflict, global governance failure, and systemic cascade vulnerability."
      }
    },
    "strength_values": {
      "strong": "Direct support from high-quality source",
      "moderate": "Reasonable support with non-trivial uncertainty",
      "weak": "Limited or proxy evidence",
      "expert_judgment": "Expert judgment without direct URL",
      "anchored_judgment": "Judgment calibrated to named source anchors"
    },
    "calibration_method": "effective_growth = min(log1p(raw_indicator_growth) * conversion_multiplier, 0.05); non-growth metrics use anchored expert calibration to source ranges.",
    "growth_rate_calibration_classes": {
      "ai": "capability_growth",
      "amr": "selection_pressure_growth",
      "authoritarian": "population_share_proxy",
      "autonomousw": "market_capability_growth",
      "biodiversity": "assessment_and_extinction_pressure_proxy",
      "bioengineered": "publication_capability_proxy",
      "climate": "direct_risk_pressure_proxy",
      "cyber": "incident_reporting_growth",
      "debt": "macro_balance_proxy",
      "displacement": "exposed_population_growth",
      "economic": "expert_systemic_fragility_proxy",
      "epistemic": "institutional_spread_proxy",
      "fragmentation_gov": "small_count_institutional_proxy",
      "geopolitics": "spending_conflict_pressure",
      "minerals": "market_demand_growth",
      "nuclear": "stockpile_modernization_risk_proxy",
      "oceans": "composite_degradation_pressure",
      "pandemics": "event_frequency_growth",
      "pollution": "production_pressure_growth",
      "soils": "land_degradation_pressure",
      "space": "inventory_growth_proxy",
      "supply": "trade_restriction_growth",
      "water": "scarcity_exposure_growth"
    },
    "validation_rules": [
      "lo <= mu <= hi",
      "0-5 metrics bounded",
      "threshold 0-10",
      "growth_rate calibrated effective"
    ]
  },
  "ai.scale": {
    "mu": 4.5,
    "lo": 4.1,
    "hi": 4.9,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "ai.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "ai.acceleration": {
    "mu": 4.5,
    "lo": 4.1,
    "hi": 4.9,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "ai.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.3,
    "lo": 3.9,
    "hi": 4.7,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "ai.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "ai.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "ai.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.5,
    "lo": 8.2,
    "hi": 8.8,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "ai.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0307,
    "lo": 0.0215,
    "hi": 0.0399,
    "source": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024",
    "url": "https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2024 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.550 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "capability_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.07,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.55,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "amr.scale": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "amr.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "amr.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.2,
    "lo": 2.8,
    "hi": 3.6,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "amr.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "amr.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "amr.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "amr.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.4,
    "lo": 8.1,
    "hi": 8.7,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "amr.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0196,
    "lo": 0.0137,
    "hi": 0.0255,
    "source": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "WHO Antimicrobial Resistance fact sheet and Lancet GBD AMR 2022 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.040 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "selection_pressure_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.5,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.04,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "authoritarian.scale": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "authoritarian.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "authoritarian.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "authoritarian.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "authoritarian.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.2,
    "lo": 2.8,
    "hi": 3.6,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "authoritarian.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "authoritarian.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.2,
    "lo": 7.9,
    "hi": 8.5,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "authoritarian.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0177,
    "lo": 0.0124,
    "hi": 0.0231,
    "source": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024",
    "url": "https://v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2024 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.030 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "population_share_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.6,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.03,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "autonomousw.scale": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "autonomousw.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "autonomousw.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "autonomousw.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "autonomousw.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "autonomousw.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "autonomousw.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.3,
    "lo": 8.0,
    "hi": 8.6,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "autonomousw.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0298,
    "lo": 0.0209,
    "hi": 0.0388,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 on military AI and autonomous weapons provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.220 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "market_capability_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.15,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.22,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "biodiversity.scale": {
    "mu": 4.3,
    "lo": 3.9,
    "hi": 4.7,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "biodiversity.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "biodiversity.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.3,
    "lo": 2.9,
    "hi": 3.7,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "biodiversity.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.4,
    "lo": 4.0,
    "hi": 4.8,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "biodiversity.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 4.6,
    "lo": 4.2,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "biodiversity.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "biodiversity.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.6,
    "lo": 8.3,
    "hi": 8.9,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "biodiversity.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0158,
    "lo": 0.0111,
    "hi": 0.0206,
    "source": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services",
    "url": "https://ipbes.net/global-assessment",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.020 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "assessment_and_extinction_pressure_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.8,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.02,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "bioengineered.scale": {
    "mu": 4.6,
    "lo": 4.2,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "bioengineered.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "bioengineered.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "bioengineered.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "bioengineered.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "bioengineered.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "bioengineered.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.7,
    "lo": 8.4,
    "hi": 9.0,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "bioengineered.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0315,
    "lo": 0.022,
    "hi": 0.0409,
    "source": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240011311",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual 4th edition provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.300 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "publication_capability_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.12,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.3,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "climate.scale": {
    "mu": 4.8,
    "lo": 4.4,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "climate.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.7,
    "lo": 4.3,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "climate.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "climate.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.7,
    "lo": 4.3,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "climate.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 4.5,
    "lo": 4.1,
    "hi": 4.9,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "climate.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "climate.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.9,
    "lo": 8.6,
    "hi": 9.2,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "climate.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0178,
    "lo": 0.0125,
    "hi": 0.0232,
    "source": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.018 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "direct_risk_pressure_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 1.0,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.018,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "cyber.scale": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "cyber.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "cyber.acceleration": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "cyber.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "cyber.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 2.8,
    "lo": 2.4,
    "hi": 3.2,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "cyber.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "cyber.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.1,
    "lo": 7.8,
    "hi": 8.4,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "cyber.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.03,
    "lo": 0.021,
    "hi": 0.039,
    "source": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023",
    "url": "https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-threat-landscape-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.350 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "incident_reporting_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.1,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.35,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "debt.scale": {
    "mu": 3.2,
    "lo": 2.8,
    "hi": 3.6,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "debt.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "debt.acceleration": {
    "mu": 2.9,
    "lo": 2.5,
    "hi": 3.3,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "debt.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "debt.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 2.5,
    "lo": 2.1,
    "hi": 2.9,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "debt.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "debt.threshold": {
    "mu": 7.9,
    "lo": 7.6,
    "hi": 8.2,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "debt.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0176,
    "lo": 0.0123,
    "hi": 0.0229,
    "source": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "IMF Global Debt Database and Fiscal Monitor 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.045 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "macro_balance_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.4,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.045,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "displacement.scale": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "displacement.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "displacement.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "displacement.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "displacement.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "displacement.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "displacement.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.0,
    "lo": 7.7,
    "hi": 8.3,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "displacement.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0204,
    "lo": 0.0143,
    "hi": 0.0265,
    "source": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "UNHCR Global Trends Report 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.060 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "exposed_population_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.35,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.06,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "economic.scale": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "economic.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "economic.acceleration": {
    "mu": 2.8,
    "lo": 2.4,
    "hi": 3.2,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "economic.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.3,
    "lo": 3.9,
    "hi": 4.7,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "economic.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 2.7,
    "lo": 2.3,
    "hi": 3.1,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "economic.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "economic.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.0,
    "lo": 7.7,
    "hi": 8.3,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "economic.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0123,
    "lo": 0.0086,
    "hi": 0.016,
    "source": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "IMF World Economic Outlook 2023 and BIS Annual Economic Report provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.025 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "expert_systemic_fragility_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.5,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.025,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "epistemic.scale": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "epistemic.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "epistemic.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "epistemic.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "epistemic.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.1,
    "lo": 2.7,
    "hi": 3.5,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "epistemic.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "epistemic.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.1,
    "lo": 7.8,
    "hi": 8.4,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "epistemic.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0231,
    "lo": 0.0162,
    "hi": 0.03,
    "source": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023",
    "url": "https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.080 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "institutional_spread_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.3,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.08,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.scale": {
    "mu": 3.3,
    "lo": 2.9,
    "hi": 3.7,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.2,
    "lo": 2.8,
    "hi": 3.6,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.0,
    "lo": 7.7,
    "hi": 8.3,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "fragmentation_gov.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0195,
    "lo": 0.0137,
    "hi": 0.0254,
    "source": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_monitoring_oct23_e.pdf",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "WTO Global Trade Outlook and Monitoring 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.050 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "small_count_institutional_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.4,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.05,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "geopolitics.scale": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "geopolitics.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "geopolitics.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.3,
    "lo": 2.9,
    "hi": 3.7,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "geopolitics.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.4,
    "lo": 4.0,
    "hi": 4.8,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "geopolitics.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.3,
    "lo": 2.9,
    "hi": 3.7,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "geopolitics.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "geopolitics.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.5,
    "lo": 8.2,
    "hi": 8.8,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "geopolitics.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0237,
    "lo": 0.0166,
    "hi": 0.0308,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 and UCDP Conflict Data provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.070 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "spending_conflict_pressure",
    "risk_conversion": 0.35,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.07,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "minerals.scale": {
    "mu": 2.9,
    "lo": 2.5,
    "hi": 3.3,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "minerals.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "minerals.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "minerals.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "minerals.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.2,
    "lo": 2.8,
    "hi": 3.6,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "minerals.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.3,
    "lo": 2.9,
    "hi": 3.7,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "minerals.threshold": {
    "mu": 7.8,
    "lo": 7.5,
    "hi": 8.1,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "minerals.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0227,
    "lo": 0.0159,
    "hi": 0.0295,
    "source": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-market-review-2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "IEA Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.120 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "market_demand_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.2,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.12,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "nuclear.scale": {
    "mu": 4.9,
    "lo": 4.5,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "nuclear.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.3,
    "lo": 3.9,
    "hi": 4.7,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "nuclear.acceleration": {
    "mu": 2.5,
    "lo": 2.1,
    "hi": 2.9,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "nuclear.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "nuclear.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 4.8,
    "lo": 4.4,
    "hi": 5.0,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "nuclear.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "nuclear.threshold": {
    "mu": 9.1,
    "lo": 8.8,
    "hi": 9.4,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "nuclear.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0134,
    "lo": 0.0094,
    "hi": 0.0174,
    "source": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook",
    "url": "https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023/10",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "SIPRI Yearbook 2023 Nuclear Forces and FAS Nuclear Notebook provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.015 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "stockpile_modernization_risk_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.9,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.015,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "oceans.scale": {
    "mu": 4.1,
    "lo": 3.7,
    "hi": 4.5,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "oceans.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "oceans.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.2,
    "lo": 2.8,
    "hi": 3.6,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "oceans.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.3,
    "lo": 3.9,
    "hi": 4.7,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "oceans.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 4.4,
    "lo": 4.0,
    "hi": 4.8,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "oceans.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "oceans.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.5,
    "lo": 8.2,
    "hi": 8.8,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "oceans.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0152,
    "lo": 0.0107,
    "hi": 0.0198,
    "source": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere",
    "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.022 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "composite_degradation_pressure",
    "risk_conversion": 0.7,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.022,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "pandemics.scale": {
    "mu": 4.4,
    "lo": 4.0,
    "hi": 4.8,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "pandemics.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "pandemics.acceleration": {
    "mu": 2.9,
    "lo": 2.5,
    "hi": 3.3,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "pandemics.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "pandemics.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "pandemics.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "pandemics.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.6,
    "lo": 8.3,
    "hi": 8.9,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "pandemics.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0177,
    "lo": 0.0124,
    "hi": 0.0231,
    "source": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases",
    "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/infectious-diseases",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "WHO Global Health Observatory Infectious Diseases provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.030 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "event_frequency_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.6,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.03,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "pollution.scale": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "pollution.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "pollution.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.1,
    "lo": 2.7,
    "hi": 3.5,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "pollution.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "pollution.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "pollution.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "pollution.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.2,
    "lo": 7.9,
    "hi": 8.5,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "pollution.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0172,
    "lo": 0.012,
    "hi": 0.0223,
    "source": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022",
    "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health 2022 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.035 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "production_pressure_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.5,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.035,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "soils.scale": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "soils.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "soils.acceleration": {
    "mu": 2.7,
    "lo": 2.3,
    "hi": 3.1,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "soils.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "soils.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "soils.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.5,
    "lo": 3.1,
    "hi": 3.9,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "soils.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.1,
    "lo": 7.8,
    "hi": 8.4,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "soils.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0125,
    "lo": 0.0087,
    "hi": 0.0162,
    "source": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/soil-partnership",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "FAO Status of the World's Soil Resources provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.018 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "land_degradation_pressure",
    "risk_conversion": 0.7,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.018,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "space.scale": {
    "mu": 2.7,
    "lo": 2.3,
    "hi": 3.1,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "space.urgency": {
    "mu": 2.8,
    "lo": 2.4,
    "hi": 3.2,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "space.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "space.interdependence": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "space.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "space.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.8,
    "lo": 3.4,
    "hi": 4.2,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "space.threshold": {
    "mu": 7.9,
    "lo": 7.6,
    "hi": 8.2,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to ESA Space Environment Report 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "space.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0252,
    "lo": 0.0176,
    "hi": 0.0327,
    "source": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023",
    "url": "https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_s_Space_Environment_Report_2023",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "ESA Space Environment Report 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.150 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "inventory_growth_proxy",
    "risk_conversion": 0.18,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.15,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "supply.scale": {
    "mu": 3.1,
    "lo": 2.7,
    "hi": 3.5,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "supply.urgency": {
    "mu": 3.3,
    "lo": 2.9,
    "hi": 3.7,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "supply.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "supply.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "supply.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 2.4,
    "lo": 2.0,
    "hi": 2.8,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "supply.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.4,
    "lo": 3.0,
    "hi": 3.8,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "moderate",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "supply.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.0,
    "lo": 7.7,
    "hi": 8.3,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "supply.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0187,
    "lo": 0.0131,
    "hi": 0.0243,
    "source": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023",
    "url": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2023_e.htm",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "WTO World Trade Statistical Review 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.055 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "trade_restriction_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.35,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.055,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  },
  "water.scale": {
    "mu": 3.9,
    "lo": 3.5,
    "hi": 4.3,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 documents severe systemic potential; mu reflects high but not maximal magnitude given remaining mitigation levers."
  },
  "water.urgency": {
    "mu": 4.0,
    "lo": 3.6,
    "hi": 4.4,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 indicates present-decade pressure requiring policy action; urgency calibrated to current exposure."
  },
  "water.acceleration": {
    "mu": 3.0,
    "lo": 2.6,
    "hi": 3.4,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 shows worsening drivers or capability trends; acceleration reflects observed rate not worst-case."
  },
  "water.interdependence": {
    "mu": 4.2,
    "lo": 3.8,
    "hi": 4.6,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 and cross-domain literature indicate coupling to other systemic threats; score reflects documented amplifiers."
  },
  "water.irreversibility": {
    "mu": 3.7,
    "lo": 3.3,
    "hi": 4.1,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 suggests persistence of damage after threshold crossing; irreversibility reflects recovery difficulty."
  },
  "water.gov_failure": {
    "mu": 3.6,
    "lo": 3.2,
    "hi": 4.0,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "strong",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 highlights governance gaps and collective action challenges; score reflects institutional risk."
  },
  "water.threshold": {
    "mu": 8.3,
    "lo": 8.0,
    "hi": 8.6,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "Threshold is abstract model calibration, not empirical tipping point. Anchored to FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 severity framing and cross-threat comparison; mu set within 7.8-9.2 range per v1.5 guidance."
  },
  "water.growth_rate": {
    "mu": 0.0166,
    "lo": 0.0116,
    "hi": 0.0216,
    "source": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023",
    "url": "https://www.fao.org/aquastat",
    "accessed": "2026-05-02",
    "strength": "anchored_judgment",
    "note": "FAO AQUASTAT and WRI Aqueduct 2023 provides raw indicator trend; growth_rate stores calibrated effective systemic risk-growth, not raw 0.028 annual change.",
    "growth_kind": "scarcity_exposure_growth",
    "risk_conversion": 0.6,
    "raw_indicator_growth": 0.028,
    "effective_growth_calibrated": true,
    "calibration_note": "mu/lo/hi already store calibrated effective systemic risk-growth via log1p(raw)*conversion with cap; do not convert again."
  }
}